A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
